DECISION CHAIN supports the Pulp & Paper Industry’s Because sooner or later… you’re going to want Rich Data, Smart Analytics and Expert Consulting ANALYSIS & PLANNING How big is the market and how is it growing? How is capacity changing? How competitive are we? Is there profitability in exporting? How do financial performances compare? Which regions have the most potential? OPERATIONS & PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT How does asset efficiency compare? Where are cost improvement opportunities? What else can the machine make? How do environmental performances compare? What new products does the market need most? How competitive can we be in each new product? SALES & MARKETING Where are the best margins to be found? How cost-competitive is each asset? How attractive is the market for a new product? What’s in the pipeline and where’s the best ROI? Is sales well prepared? Who’s a star and who’s not? INVESTMENT, M&A, & ASSET DISPOSAL What should be sold, repurposed, or closed? Which competitors should be targeted? Whose products and locations fit best? Where should capital be spent and why? Who has a long-term viability problem and who will survive? 50 Water Street • So. Norwalk, CT 06854 USA +1 203 854 5390 • www.fisheri.com BETTER INTELLIGENCE. BETTER DECISIONS. FisherSolveTM 61 158 184 111 97 88 175 237 53 53 120 188 244 143 390 75 170 193 125 55 76 81 75 74 232 187 105 Mfg. Cash Cost and Cumulative Production Cumulative Production, FST per Year (x1,000,000) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cost, USD per FST 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 -200 Overhead Materials Labor Energy Chemicals Pulps Raw Material Fiber 11 61 158 184 111 97 88 175 237 53 53 120 188 244 143 390 75 170 193 125 55 76 81 75 74 232 187 105 Mfg. Cash Cost and Cumulative Production Cumulative Production, FST per Year (x1,000,000) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cost, USD per FST 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 -200 Overhead Materials Labor Energy Chemicals Pulps Raw Material Fiber Cumulative Production FST Cost, USD per FST 61 158 184 111 97 88 175 237 53 53 120 188 244 143 390 75 170 193 125 55 76 81 75 74 232 187 105 Mfg. Cash Cost and Cumulative Production Cumulative Production, FST per Year (x1,000,000) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cost, USD per FST 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 -200 Overhead Materials Labor Energy Chemicals Pulps Raw Material Fiber Few Machines Are Best in all Cost Categories. Investment Will Change Competitive Positions 19 Operate for cash Invest in cost reduction Divest or close High Fiber Line Competitiveness Low High PM Competitiveness Low Repurpose the PM Competitiveness of Mills’ Fiber Lines versus Paper Machine Suggests Strategy Nine Dragons 14% Nippon 3% Oji Holdings 5% PCA 3% RockTenn 10% Smurfit Kappa 9% Stora Enso 5% All Other 6% G-P 7% KapStone 3% Mondi 4% Lee & Man 6% IP 20% APP 7% Total = 61,354,836 FMT Market Shares by Grade Segments Paper Machine Width, Inches TPD/ Trim Width More productive Less productive Our Efficiency in Tons-per-Trim Width versus Key Competitors 15 0.131 0.485 0.673 1.187 0.398 0.843 0.859 Total Carbon Emission and Cumulative Production Cumulative Production, FST per Year (x1,000,000) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Carbon Emission, ST CO ₂ eq. per FST 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 0.000 CO₂ from Transportation CO₂ from Purchased Electricity CO₂ from Fossil Fuel Combustion CO₂ from Raw Materials 0.131 0.485 0.673 1.187 0.398 0.843 0.859 Total Carbon Emission and Cumulative Production Cumulative Production, FST per Year (x1,000,000) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Carbon Emission, ST CO ₂ eq. per FST 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 0.000 CO₂ from Transportation CO₂ from Purchased Electricity CO₂ from Fossil Fuel Combustion CO₂ from Raw Materials Cumulative Production FST Carbon Emission . ST CO 2 eq. per FST Carbon Footprint versus Key Competitors in Each Grade Class Headbox Hydraulic Dilution Control 1997 Voith Master Jet G Voith Type SubType Model Year Built Original Supplier Current Supplier Former Press Assembly Press Assembly Press Assembly Dryer Dryer Dryer Size Press Dryer Calender Stack Coater-On Machine Twin Wire_Gap Roll Press Roll Press Shoe Press Drum Drum Drum Film_press Drum Hard Nip Rod Roll Blade Double Nip Double Nip Straight Through Two Tier Two Tier Two Tier Metering_rod Two Tier xxxx Metering 2001 1997 1997 2001 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith Voith DuoFormer TQv DuoCentri I DuoCentri I NipcoFlex CombiDuoRun CombiDuoRun CombiDuoRun SpeedSizer CombiDuoRun xxxx Speed Coater Headbox Hydraulic D Former Press Assembly Twin Wire_Gap Roll Press R D y Press Assembly Dryer Shoe Press Drum S T y Size Press D Film_press D M T Dryer Drum T x Calender Stack Hard Nip Coater-On Machine Rod M C t O M hi R d x M Calender Stack Hard Nip Machine Capabilities Available for Product Development Project 17 Forecast Short Ton Asian White Top Linerboard Capacity Growth, Historical and Forecast 19 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 Total Average Ranking and Cumulative Production Cumulative Production, FST per Year (x1,000,000) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Viability Index Ranking Value 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 0.0 High Moderate Low FST Per Year Viability Benchmarking: Assets at Greatest Risk Analysis of Logistics, Product Portfolios, and Costs Suggests Three Candidates Release Paper 6% C1S Label 21% Carbonless 11% Greaseproof 1% Label 0% Coated Bristol 2% Coated Specialties 8% Cover and Text 3% Total = 9,902,135 FMT Manila Board 18% Machine Glazed 0% Liquid Packaging 24% Coated 5% Machine Finished Finished Products Made on Other Machines Like Ours Paper Machine Width, Centimeters MTPD/cm Widths and Productivities of Machines Making the Target Grade Today Mass–Energy Balance Model Flow Sheet 13 Key Financial Ratios versus Competitors, with Bankruptcy Probabilities Target Higher Cost Competitors in Selected Areas 49 54 38 74 148 56 53 43 99 149 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Cost, USD per FST 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0 -50 Cumulative Production FST Cost, USD per FST Transportation Overhead Materials Labor Energy Chemicals Raw Material Fiber Us Them Energy Energy Lower Energy Prices Alone Could Make Them Competitive