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world pulppaper 11 Further consolidation is to be expected in a market where demand is on the wane consolidation can happen through closures as well as ma Fisher expects consolidation in the North American market to continue so long as regulators allow as flat market conditions force the remaining players to continue reducing costs in response to the demand of stakeholders for continued increases in profit. In North American coated papers the top three producers account for 73 of the market Figure 7. This declining segment entered the last phase of consolidation with the Verso-NewPage mer-ger serving as the tipping point. Further consolidation is expected in the years ahead. In North American uncoated freesheet papers the picture is broadly similar Figure 8 with the top three sharing 67 of the market. Again further consolidation is to be expected in a market where demand is on the wane. It should be noted that consolidation can happen through closures as well as MA. Tissue and towel is growing at the rate of the regions population. The top three producers account for 60 of the market Stage 3 so the potential exists for further consolidation Figure 9. What we have seen recently in this market is the arrival of new single-mill operators financed by venture capital which have been rapidly acquired by the big players. This deconsolidation phenomenon is likely to continue as the entry capital costs are relatively modest in the tissue sector unlike the other grades considered here. Looking at the away-from-home sector of the tissue market we see that concentration is in Stage 4 with 71 market share in the hands of the top three GP SCA and KC. The at-home market is a little more widely distributed with the top three GP PG and KC accounting for 64. This illustrates that the more we can segment our market the easier it is to analyse and forecast development. Figure 5. Cost reductions have narrowed the gap between top and bottom quartiles in this sector Figure 7. North American coated papers Stage 4 consolidation with top three producers accounting for 73 market share Figure 6. Large-scale mergers sharply increased leaders market shares