WORLD PULP&PAPER 9 Over the long sweep of history, the paper industry evolved through big, long-term trends driven by different regions of the world. After WWII, North America started on a 30-year capacity building binge that dramatically expanded the world’s pulp and paper making capacity. The expansion of the late 1950s through the early 1980s brought us new softwood pulping technology, faster, wider machines, dominant companies like Beloit, and a huge amount of product – most of which was for domestic consumption. Europe followed shortly thereafter with its own period of expansion that brought on more capacity, created major companies like Voith, Valmet, and Andritz from the previously fragmented industry of suppliers, and its own contribution to technological development. Europe’s expansion, however, differed from that in North America in that the former was built on the premise of exporting. Today, Finland and Sweden – with only 2% of Europe’s population – produce 24% of the continent’s paper; they clearly are exporting most of their production across country lines. Europe’s paper industry grew also with the expectation of exporting outside the region, making its capacity considerably larger than that required for domestic regional consumption. Other parts of the world – Southeast By Rod Fisher, President, Fisher International China’s Long-Term Impact on the Global Paper Industry Europe’s expansion… differed from that in North America in that the former was built on the premise of exporting. GLOBAL INDUSTRY TRENDS Asia and Brazil, for example – followed in the 1990s with their own periods of substantial growth, bringing into the industry new forestry practices, new large-scale hardwood pulping technology, large companies (such as APP, Fibria, and Suzano), and a new idea of the meaning of low-cost production. In similarity with Europe, the industries of these countries were also built on exports. Figure 1 shows how history’s large trends still shape the global industry today. North American and European assets are considerably older on average than those of Asia and Latin America. And more recently, it has been the turn of China. Larger in scale than any expansion that came before, China’s growth has and will affect every industry participant in a wide range of ways. Moreover, the globalisation of the world’s economy amplifies the impact of China’s large scale even further. It is therefore important to know what effects are coming our way. How will China’s influence on the global paper industry unfold? Here are some thoughts. Figure 1. Asian and Latin American assets are newer on average compared to North America and Europe.